The number of people aged 65 years set to reach over 1 million by 2030 and over 1.81 million by 2057
16/7/2024: New population projection models from the CSO show various scenarios and Labour Force projections to 2057.
In three different scenarios discussed by the Expert Group the population by 2057 will reach 7.005 million, 6.446 million and 5.734 million persons respectively. The key change in each of these scenarios is the net migration per annum.
- The number of people aged 65 years and over is set to increase significantly over the period of these projections with the number of people in this age category set to reach over 1 million by 2030.
- For each of the three scenarios there appears to be a change from natural increase (i.e. more births than deaths within the population) in the population to a natural decrease in the population by the 2040’s.
- The Labour Force is projected to increase under all three potential population growth scenarios. The amount of growth depends on the scenario chosen
The older population – Ages 65 and over
The older population (i.e. those aged 65 years and over) is projected to increase very significantly from its 2022 level in the projection scenarios.
Under the M1 scenario, the 2022 older population of 781,400 persons will grow to over 1.94 million by 2057. Under the M2 and M3 scenarios it will grow to 1.88 million and 1.81 million respectively.
In 2022 the older population accounted for 15.1% of the total population, this will grow to between 27.8% and 31.6% (for M1 and M3 respectively) of the total population by 2057 depending on the scenario.
Find out more on the CSO website at https://shorturl.at/bdAgR
